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Who will officiate 2018 UEFA Super Cup (Madrid's derby)? Analysis and prediction

A new season of European cups with fascinating duels is waiting for us. Both Champions League and Europa League have already started with preliminary rounds. In a few time, UEFA Super Cup will be played, this year in Estonia, and it will be Madrid's derby. A very hot game to start the season, who could be in charge? Let's make a short analysis. 
A. Le Coq Arena in Tallinn, Estonia, venue of 2018 UEFA Super Cup
We can assume that the game will be officiated by an Elite referee and we will not see again a referee who already got this assignment in past. As I already said when we discussed about Kuipers appointment for his second EL final, his nomination should remain as something extra-ordinary, but not a common or repeated practice.

UEFA Elite referees:
Aytekin, Bastien, Brych, Çakır, Collum, Gil Manzano, Hațegan, Karasev, Kassai, Královec, Kuipers, Makkelie, Marciniak, Mateu Lahoz, Mažić, Oliver, Orsato, Rocchi, Sidiropoulos, Skomina, Soares Dias, Taylor, Turpin, Undiano Mallenco, Zwayer.

As first step, we can eliminate the referees who are from the same country of the teams involved: Gil Manzano, Mateu Lahoz and Undiano Mallenco. Despite of the fact that they could handle the game because they are from the same country of both teams and they are not from Madrid community, committee will make for sure a different choice, to ensure more "neutrality" in such a game.

Second step is to rule out, for the reason I already mentioned, all the referees who already got this assignment in past: Collum, Kuipers, Mažić, Rocchi, Skomina.

As third step I would exclude the referees who are Elite since a too short time and for this reason such assignment would honestly come too early in their career, with all the future ahead in order to develop as Elite referees, it is in my opinion the case of: Bastien, Makkelie, Oliver, Soares Dias, Taylor and Zwayer.

Fourth and last cut would concern the referee who shouldn't be considered due to their treatment by committee and their performance, in this field the selection becomes more subjective, so of course maybe this is the most controversial argument and you could not agree at all. However, the names I don't see for various reasons are: Aytekin, Karasev, Kassai, Orsato, Sidiropoulos.

All this process would leave as candidates: Brych, Cakir, Hațegan,  Královec, Marciniak, Turpin. I think that the referee for Super Cup will be among these ones.

Trying a short analysis about every name: Felix Brych has performed very well in last KO stage, with big hopes for WC, but then in Russia he had a strong disappointment with only one game and many criticisms. He has already handled both CL and EL final, so Super Cup would complete an excellent palmares. Reason behind a possible appointment for him, could be an attempt by committe to make him recover after the unlucky experience in Russia.

Cakir,as I often wrote, is the "man of semifinals", he got many semifinals of big tournaments in his career, but in terms of final he has "only" CL and CWC in his palmares. For sure, an appointment for Super Cup would be also deserved based on his palmares. He stays as important option, given also the kind of game (Madrid's derby).

Hațegan is a quite solid Elite referee who at moment has already gained a certain experience, having officiated EL semifinal as "best" game in European competitions. However, his season has been distinguished by the crucial mistake in WC play off. I don't know whethter committee could give suddenly this chance in a very hot game, maybe he still needs time, but for sure in case of appointment I wouldn't be totally surprised.

Czech Pavel Královec after a very poor period of form, is now on the way of his recover, with quite good assignments. I think that this appointment would come still too early, however, it could be a signal of the trust. Difficult but not impossible.

Szymon Marciniak, as it was for Europa Legue final on last May, would be my first candidate, but I see still the Polish in a very poor period, not convincing performances after an excellent path in the previous seasons. However, I think he is for sure a candidate for the game, he should recover, if you ask me, also after not a good experience at World Cup (mostly his second game). I have for sure big expectations in the Polish, but as for now, I feel disappointed. Hopefully in case of appointment he will prove me that I was wrong.

Last, and that's my prediction, we have the name of Clément Turpin as very strong candidate for this game. The French at moment represents the best example of referee for such appointment. He is Elite since many years. After some trouble in his early seasons, in recent times his growth has been more than impressive. He has shown excellent performances, especially in terms of players management, leading him to officiate at World Cup in Russia. This has been for sure quite unexpected at a certain time, because it looked to be too early. Nevertheless, he has worked and he has been ready. This appointment, in case, would be also a very good start for the French, in order to be tested in very hot games, like Madrid's derby, and if you ask me, given his path so far, this should be the next step. At the same time, I would be really curious to see the French in this context.

So, having to select three names I would say:

1) Turpin
2) Çakır
3) Marciniak

Feel free to add your prediction as comment, on next days a poll will be opened.