I can't start this analysis without mentioning the very particular period we are living, and first of all I would like to make a wish to all readers: keep safe and strong. Hopefully we will be back to normal life soon. The forced break caused by Coronavirus pandemic has indeed influenced the European competitions and both Champions and Europa League have been stopped for a long time. This has led to a very singular end of the season, with KO stages played in a few days, Champions League in Portugal and Europa League in Germany.
So under this point of view it is for sure an easier task, having to make predictions about the final choices by committee, to consider only the referees appointed starting from the resume of both tournaments. We then have: Ivan Kružliak (SVK), Daniele Orsato (ITA), Anastasios Sidiropoulos (GRE), Danny Makkelie (NED), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Michael Oliver (ENG), Bjorn Kuipers (NED), Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP), Felix Brych (GER), Ovidiu Hategan (ROU), Clément Turpin (FRA), Felix Zwayer (GER, Cüneyt Çakır (TUR), Damir Skomina (SVN).
A first selection can bring us to exclude Ivan Kružliak (SVK), who is Elite refeere from a short time and he will have definitely time to make experience. To follow, I would also exclude Anastasios Sidiropoulos (GRE), who got only one game in Europa League and then worked only as fourth official. He can be already satisfied with whate he achieved.
Coming to performance analysis, I think that Felix Zwayer (GER), who has officiated a very controversial game between Juventus and Lyon in Champions League round of 16 should be out as well. The same, not in terms of experience, but, I repeat myself, performance, should be for Cüneyt Çakır (TUR): in my opinion he had a quite negative evening in Barcelona - Napoli and he was never appointed again after that. In my opinion, these two performances, Zwayer and Çakır were the worst ones, starting from the resume of UEFA competitions.
A very particular analysis could be dedicated to Hategan (ROU): the Romanian for sure on paper could have achieved more, a news is reporting that he has been already allowed to go on holidays by committee, I think that we could have expected him as possible candidate for EL final, but for some reasons he didn't manage to get more than a game. Maybe committee wants him to make more experience with VAR. We will see, however, for sure a particular case in which performances have not been so bad, but the referee is still seen in a certain way by committee.
Talking about Skomina (SVN), I think that committee had already planned to put him in a big CL game, without appointing him before, and this was a right prediction. Then, analyzing his performance in Bayern - Barcelona we can easily say that he was below expectations, despite of a game never in discussion, given the final score. For sure he has to recover the form, also after a long time of stop.
Michael Oliver (ENG) deserves for sure a small focus: I think that his countryman Taylor is at moment more considered by Rosetti and the committee, so what the English achieved with some appearance in Europa League, should be already enough for this season. I don't see him as candidate for a final it would be too early.
Having said that, the rest of all officials could be, at least on paper, candidate for one of the two finals. Here the names: Daniele Orsato (ITA), Clément Turpin (FRA), Danny Makkelie (NED), Antonio Mateu Lahoz (ESP), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Bjorn Kuipers (NED), Carlos del Cerro Grande (ESP), Felix Brych (GER),.
We can continue our selection by ruling out referees who already got the big call in both competitions and this allows us to exclude: Felix Brych (GER) and Bjorn Kuipers (NED), It would be very particular to see one of them appointed again for a final. However, about Brych we must also mention Bayern presence in semifinal, and committee could have already made a choice. On the other hand, in case of EL final for Kuipers, this would be the third one, and to be honest, quite impossible.
The situations of the two Spanish Elite referees is now a very interesting chapter: I think that Del Cerro Grande has not shown the best performance in occasion of Inter - Bayer Leverkusen, Europa League quarterfinal played in single tie. Nothing too bad, but definitely to consider for a possible future appointment. Also, as some readers pointed already out on the blog, at the moment he already had great success in his UEFA path: with age limits abolishment in Spain, he will have time to get more. So, Antonio Mateu Lahoz can be considered still ahead of him. The latter has been today assigned to the semifinal involving Bayern and Lyon. This doesn't exclude him 100% from the final, but it would be very particular because we didn't see a referee appointed for a semifinal and then also the final with Rosetti, this happened with Collina, but I think now it wont be the same. Very strange that in this context, in case of different appointment for the final, Mateu Lahoz has not been considered. He will have for sure still time, as, like Del Cerro, he will benefit from age limits abolishment in Spain, but for sure this competition, as I already wrote on the blog, will not help.
So the remaining names are: Daniele Orsato (ITA), Danny Makkelie (NED), Szymon Marciniak (POL), Anthony Taylor (ENG), Clément Turpin (FRA).
Regarding Taylor (ENG), despite of an excellent development he made on recent times in UEFA games, I think that it would be definitely too early to see him in a final. Key fact: he did Champions League KO stage debut this season. It is quite unlikely to think that committee would be already satisfied to appoint him for CL final. Rather, he could be candidate for EL final, but I will be back on this argument later.
Szymon Marciniak (POL) has shown that he is in a way returned to be the quite good and reliable referee we knew, working on this mistakes, and offering surely good performances. However, I don't think he will be in the middle as main referee for a final, because he got already three games in this end of seasom that should be the highest number among all the referees appointed. I think that his career on the pitch will end in all cases today with EL semifinal: however he has chances to be appointed as fourth official in one of the two finals. I would say the Polish is at moment "working for the future".
Clément Turpin (FRA) has been appointed only in one game, Manchester United - Copenhagen, EL quarterfinal and that's very strange. I would have expected at least a second appointment, this didn't come. We can report that in the game there was a quite obvious mistake by AR1, with a very clear offside missed. The penalty whistled in extra time is for sure an OK decision, but I hae the feeling that for some reasons, he is not so much in focus by committee and not in a very good moment, but differently from other referees, for sure in a better condition. I think that, for getting a final, he should have officiated more before, given also the stop for French competitions decided by federation.
So, you have probably realized what are my ideas for Champions League and Europa League finals, with the teo remaining names. I think that committee will appoint Daniele Orsato (ITA) for the masterpiece in Portugal, while Danny Makkelie (NED) for the one in Germany. Regarding Orsato, it would be a quite surprising choice, because allof us would have expected, in this situation, Mateu Lahoz. But when one year ago I started to make some reasoning about this CL final, I had indeed Orsato as second candidate after the Spanish, so for sure I could understand this choice. Regarding the possible retirement, according to last rumors coming from Italy, there is the chance that he could officiate until World Cup 2022, as Italy wont manage to have other candidates after him (Massa and Guida folow, but they have to work hard and they are already too later for being main referees in Qatar). However, as one could expect, after a long career, he could retire after Euro 2020 ('21), so this can make sense, as overall he has been a quite reliable referee at UEFA level. He was never at the level of Rocchi, and the fact that the latter had to leave without this final was indeed very unfair, but Orsato can manage to achieve this success. What helps us in understanding that this appointment is about to be very likely is the fact that Orsato got only two Europa League games, being far from spotlights, and without a single presence in CL fro the resume. It would be too strange to see him out without apparent reasons. The appointments can always help us, as it was for Skomina, before getting that top clash. This is why I'm very convinced that Orsato will be there. But I want also to add that, as Italian, that in UEFA we never saw the excellent Orsato we see in serie A. He didn't manage to apply the same superb style in international competitions, maybe an issue of language, players, differences and other facts. However, he was absolutely always on the top.
Regarding Europa League final, as said, I can't see other names than Makkelie, the Dutch has impressed, I already wrote a few days ago, immediately after the final whistle of Manchester City - Lyon, that he is ready to achieve more. This appointment would be 100% meritocracy, if you ask me, and for the Dutch, a very good start of an even more brilliant career at very top level. There is for sure not so much to add. Assuming that committee agreed with the assessment made on the 1-2 scored by Lyon in his last game, another assignment should definitely follow, and also in this case, you can easily look at the number of appointment so far: 2, which means that a third in case of good performances, can follow.
So, final predictions are:
Champions League final
Referee: Daniele Orsato (ITA)
Assistant Referee 1: Lorenzo Manganelli (ITA)
Assistant Referee 2: Alessandro Giallatini (ITA)
Fourth Official: Clément Turpin (FRA)
Video Assistant Referee: Massimiliano Irrati (ITA)
Assistant Video Assistant Referee: Marco Guida (ITA)
Europa League final
Referee: Danny Makkelie (NED)
Assistant Referee 1: Mario Diks (NED)
Assistant Referee 2: Hessel Steegstra (NED)
Fourth Official: Szymon Marciniak (POL)
Video Assistant Referee: Jochem Kamphuis (NED)
Assistant Video Assistant Referee: Kevin Blom (NED)
And you? What are your predictions for CL and EL final referees?
